According to @BullTheoryio, a US government shutdown halts releases of jobs reports, CPI, PPI, and payrolls, forcing markets to trade on known information rather than fresh data, which the account frames as supportive for crypto. According to @BullTheoryio, the current backdrop is a cooling labor market and controlled inflation, conditions that historically favor risk assets like BTC and altcoins. According to @BullTheoryio, 400,000 to 500,000 federal workers would be furloughed without pay during a shutdown, dampening spending and softening inflation, which could increase the odds of policy easing. According to @BullTheoryio, rate cut odds are essentially 100 percent for October and above 85 percent for December, with Clean PCE cited at 2.7 percent as evidence of contained inflation. According to @BullTheoryio, markets typically dislike uncertainty during a shutdown but risk assets often rally once it ends, and BTC is already showing strength. According to @BullTheoryio, the next 1 to 2 months could see upside in BTC and altcoins as liquidity returns and inflation stays in check, with delayed data plus potential easing forming a bullish setup.

According to @BullTheoryio, the main market risk from a potential U.S. government shutdown is uncertainty, while prior shutdowns were followed by relatively quick recoveries in risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio X post, Sep 28, 2025). Verified history shows the S&P 500 rose roughly 4–5% in the month after the Oct 1–16, 2013 shutdown ended, reaching new highs (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). During the Dec 22, 2018–Jan 25, 2019 shutdown, the S&P 500 advanced about 5% in the month following the reopening, after a larger rebound off the late-December 2018 trough (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). For crypto, BTC did not experience a shutdown-driven crash in that window; in January 2019 it traded mostly in the 3,300–3,700 dollar range while U.S. equities recovered (source: CoinGecko BTC historical data; S&P 500 historical prices). @BullTheoryio cites a latest PCE inflation reading of 2.7 percent year over year as in line with expectations, a datapoint investors typically track via the BEA release and futures-implied policy probabilities (source: @BullTheoryio X post; Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Price Index; CME FedWatch Tool).